Yellowdogtexan
06-25-2008, 06:14 PM
Obama has a 50 state strategy that includes voter registration drives in all 50 states. Here is some of the impact of such a registration drive. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-turnoutjun25,0,3852013.story Barack Obama could make major gains in at least nine states the Democratic ticket lost in 2004 if he can achieve a relatively modest increase in turnout among young and African-American voters, a Tribune analysis of voting data suggests....
A projection by the Tribune based on the results of the 2004 election shows that a turnout increase of 10 percent among blacks and youths—two groups that have demonstrated considerable excitement over the Obama candidacy—would offer a powerful potential lift to his campaign.
Two states that the Republicans narrowly won last time, Iowa and New Mexico, would switch to the Democratic column. The Republican lead in Ohio would plummet from more than 118,000 votes to fewer than 6,000. A host of Republican states would come into play, while Democratic leads would be substantially cushioned in major blue states that the presumed Republican candidate John McCain has targeted: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.Fivethirtyeight.com has a great analysis of the effect of the Obama voter registration drive here. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/black-youth-and-latino-turnout-and.htmlFor each 10 percent increase in African-American turnout, Obama gains approximately 13 electoral votes, and 1 percent in his popular vote margin against John McCain. Even a 10 percent increase is enough to take him from a slight underdog against McCain to a slight favorite, while at higher levels of turnout improvement, Obama becomes the strong favorite......
As you can see, these effects are quite powerful when combined. The 40/20 Plan would gain Obama about 48 electoral votes, and improve his win percentage to 68.3 percent. Adding Latinos to this plan would improve his win percentage further to 71.7 percent. And under his best case turnout scenario, Obama becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the election, as states like Texas and Georgia could turn blue. These numbers are very interesting. I like the idea of registering a large number of new voters. It will be fun to watch
A projection by the Tribune based on the results of the 2004 election shows that a turnout increase of 10 percent among blacks and youths—two groups that have demonstrated considerable excitement over the Obama candidacy—would offer a powerful potential lift to his campaign.
Two states that the Republicans narrowly won last time, Iowa and New Mexico, would switch to the Democratic column. The Republican lead in Ohio would plummet from more than 118,000 votes to fewer than 6,000. A host of Republican states would come into play, while Democratic leads would be substantially cushioned in major blue states that the presumed Republican candidate John McCain has targeted: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.Fivethirtyeight.com has a great analysis of the effect of the Obama voter registration drive here. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/black-youth-and-latino-turnout-and.htmlFor each 10 percent increase in African-American turnout, Obama gains approximately 13 electoral votes, and 1 percent in his popular vote margin against John McCain. Even a 10 percent increase is enough to take him from a slight underdog against McCain to a slight favorite, while at higher levels of turnout improvement, Obama becomes the strong favorite......
As you can see, these effects are quite powerful when combined. The 40/20 Plan would gain Obama about 48 electoral votes, and improve his win percentage to 68.3 percent. Adding Latinos to this plan would improve his win percentage further to 71.7 percent. And under his best case turnout scenario, Obama becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the election, as states like Texas and Georgia could turn blue. These numbers are very interesting. I like the idea of registering a large number of new voters. It will be fun to watch