What happened to Obie's 15-20 point lead?

[Wabash]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx
Gallup Daily: Obama, McCain Tied at 45%
Obama had held at least a slim advantage for most of June

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential election finds John McCain and Barack Obama exactly tied at 45% among registered voters nationwide.

Voter preferences had been fairly evenly divided for the past week, with Obama generally holding a slight advantage of two or three percentage points. This is the first time since Gallup's May 31-June 4 rolling average that Obama does not have at least a slim advantage over McCain. Obama's largest lead to date has been seven points. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Since the changes from Tuesday's results are well within the margin of sampling error, it is unclear at this point if today's results represent a further tightening of the race. The last two individual nights of polling have, however, been more favorable to McCain that what Gallup has shown for most of June. -- Jeff Jones

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from June 22-24, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,600 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Still so cocksure of yourselves libs?:LL

Tied they say...well I'll be....!

[Wabash]

If McCain wins, the expression on some of your faces will be...................................Priceless!:LL

Maybe I should leave George as my avatar...he's brought me a lot of laughs in the last 3 days or so........where ever you are now, I hope they appreciate you ....forever man!

[Lone Laugher]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

[Wabash]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Yada, yada, yada.....we will see....the reality is...many people will not vote for a black man, no matter what political persuasion they are....just ain't gonna happen...

As long as he keeps using the race card and telling people what the Pubs are going to say or not say about him or his white hating, racist wife...it's going to cause a lot of trouble...
Obamas are arrogant, elitist and white hating EXTREME Leftys.....and that is hard for many folks to swallow....and they will spit him out!

[Lone Laugher]

All conjecture...all wishful thinking.

I still don't get the elitest tag....the guy grew up solidly in the middle class.

Maybe your daytime hero has convinced you that you must have accepted unemployment checks at some point in life if you want to be called a regular guy. Oh...I bet you didn't know that about fat boy Rushie...did ya? Big fat guy on the public dole.

[Wabash]

All conjecture...all wishful thinking.

I still don't get the elitest tag....the guy grew up solidly in the middle class.

Maybe your daytime hero has convinced you that you must have accepted unemployment checks at some point in life if you want to be called a regular guy. Oh...I bet you didn't know that about fat boy Rushie...did ya? Big fat guy on the public dole.
I don't get the elitist tag either...but people that are around him when he is not on stage...say there is an elitism about both he and his wife.....

Rush is a GREAT guy, a brilliant political and football analyst, funny too...but he is not my hero, just a Great source of detecting Demo/Liberal hootzpa!

Besides....
My Heros have always been cowboys
and still are it seems
sadly in search of
and one step in back of
themselves and their slow moving dreams....

[issac the dragon]

Wabash, I don't buy the idea that people won't vote for a black. Maybe one tenth of one percent. Not enough to matter. I can understand you dwelling on it though, since Obama does. Since he started running, he mentions it about five times a day. Just in case you didn't notice. It still sounds like an excuse for losing to me.

If Obama loses, it won't be because he is black. It will be because, in spite of circumstances that sould have made it possible for my cat to beat any R., he has been unable to convince the people of this country that there is any there there.

[Lone Laugher]

Boy...I sure wish I was a smarter guy....maybe then I could see how I am being fooled by this Obama guy. Maybe then I'd pick up on his constantly playing the race card. Maybe then I'd see that he is all talk and no action. What an idiot I must be.

[Trueblue]

:D

[Wabash]

Wabash, I don't buy the idea that people won't vote for a black. Maybe one tenth of one percent. Not enough to matter. I can understand you dwelling on it though, since Obama does. Since he started running, he mentions it about five times a day. Just in case you didn't notice. It still sounds like an excuse for losing to me.

If Obama loses, it won't be because he is black. It will be because, in spite of circumstances that sould have made it possible for my cat to beat any R., he has been unable to convince the people of this country that there is any there there.
I think the % is much greater than that issac...but you are partially correct as I see it....

Boy...I sure wish I was a smarter guy....maybe then I could see how I am being fooled by this Obama guy. Maybe then I'd pick up on his constantly playing the race card. Maybe then I'd see that he is all talk and no action. What an idiot I must be.

You are not an idiot.....in spite of what I may have said in the past.:zen

You are just looking for hope...in this case the Great Black Hope, because you can't stand Bush and Co. Sometimes we hope so much for something, that it becomes unattainable. It's been that way with me a few times...I just have to let go and let God! He has answered my prayers many times...
I don't know why you can't see or hear Obie play the race card, he has done it a LOT!
Hang in there dude...when McCain wins, I'll be here to console you....:LL

[Trueblue]

And you're such a reliable reporter of when somebody is playing the race card. :lmao

[John Gault]

All conjecture...all wishful thinking.

I still don't get the elitest tag....the guy grew up solidly in the middle class.

Maybe your daytime hero has convinced you that you must have accepted unemployment checks at some point in life if you want to be called a regular guy. Oh...I bet you didn't know that about fat boy Rushie...did ya? Big fat guy on the public dole.

Many elitist grew up quite poor or middle class.

Elitisit is more an attitude than a reflection of wealth.

I would consider many of you elitists.

Unemployment is funded mostly by employers, you did know that, right?

I would also note that since he pays several million a year in taxes, he has more than made up for it.

[Wabash]

http://i185.photobucket.com/albums/x77/watermelon039/Gallup.gif

[John Gault]

What an idiot I must be.

Agreed.

[Wabash]

And you're such a reliable reporter of when somebody is playing the race card. :lmao
Why YES...YES I am!!!! You only notice it if it's Don Imus or Rush, any lib does it, including Obie and you ignore it or deny it!!!!!

Agreed.

Ok...but he's a smart ass about it too....:lmao:headbang

[Saguaro]

http://i185.photobucket.com/albums/x77/watermelon039/Gallup.gif

That is just Gallup .. try the others. You won't because the others show Obama ahead

[Lone Laugher]

That IS the best you can do JG. You couldn't resist showing off that wit of yours, I see.

[Wabash]

Oh....btw TB...you accused me of being obsessed over liberals yesterday....I say...not any more than your MEGA obsession over Bush!!!:LL

[Lone Laugher]

I think the % is much greater than that issac...but you are partially correct as I see it....



You are not an idiot.....in spite of what I may have said in the past.:zen

You are just looking for hope...in this case the Great Black Hope, because you can't stand Bush and Co. Sometimes we hope so much for something, that it becomes unattainable. It's been that way with me a few times...I just have to let go and let God! He has answered my prayers many times...
I don't know why you can't see or hear Obie play the race card, he has done it a LOT!
Hang in there dude...when McCain wins, I'll be here to console you....:LL

So THIS is what it's like in that alternate universe where people are unable to recognize sarcasm......

[Yellowdogtexan]

You may want to look at these polls http://forums.thepoliticalasylum.com/showthread.php?t=20607They both show a 15% lead for Obama (if you include Nader and Barr).

[Wabash]

That is just Gallup .. try the others. You won't because the others show Obama ahead

Why the hell would I want to show Obie being ahead.....when I'm clearly trying to show that McCain is not going to be a push over and btw....Obie isn't that much ahead on the other polls...I thing they were all single digits and ....McCain is gaining....
As long as obie keeps inserting foot in mouth and his wife is unleashed...he will drop in numbers!

The question I have is this: What company made the muzzle for Michelle to keep her big trap shut?:LL

[Wabash]

YOU ROCK George! The libs are sooooo funny today.....great inspiration...you have to be laughing with me....

[Yellowdogtexan]

BTW, wabby, you need to look at these polls. http://forums.thepoliticalasylum.com/showthread.php?t=20661Republicans are not happy with mc :cane and may not come out to vote.

[Yellowdogtexan]

Obie isn't that much ahead on the other polls...I thing they were all single digits and 15% is single digits? http://forums.thepoliticalasylum.com/showthread.php?t=20607 Maybe in your world but not in the real world.

[Wabash]

So THIS is what it's like in that alternate universe where people are unable to recognize sarcasm......

Right back at ya and you didn't even realize it...:LL

BTW, wabby, you need to look at these polls. http://forums.thepoliticalasylum.com/showthread.php?t=20661Republicans are not happy with mc :cane and may not come out to vote.
Awww...ok...I'll go look........

15% is single digits? http://forums.thepoliticalasylum.com/showthread.php?t=20607 Maybe in your world but not in the real world.

Well sheeesh, I was referring to the graph that LL put up...you spoil all my fun...

[Wabash]

Ya, I'm not happy with him either...but I'm not that stupid to think that not voting for McCain and letting the Empty Suit sail into a win is good for the country!
My goal is to stop obie at any cost!

My new battle cry is: Wrinkle the Suit!

[Wabash]

You all know what I really think of polls.......but all in all, there are many folks in this country that Will NOT vote for a black man....even if they have to vote the opposite party......

Many folks in the past were way up in the polls and lost in November! Many..........on both sides of the isle!

[Saguaro]

Keep trying Izzy :D

[Lone Laugher]

Wabby....I think we know what you think of polls. You love them when they are in your favor and you hate em' when they are not. Why is it that every knucklehead who claims that polls are meaningless is always so eager to bring them up?

[Yellowdogtexan]

I like math and numbers. Here is a regression analysis that wabby will definitely not like.http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/obama-eighteen.htmlCourtesy of the Politico, Barack Obama’s campaign has telegraphed the electoral focus of its fall campaign. Three are its highest profile defenses (PA, WI, MI), one is a Kerry state in which McCain runs particularly well (NH), and 14 are Bush 2004 states where Obama thinks he has an opportunity to gain on the previous map (IA, NM, OH, CO, VA, FL, MO, NV, IN, ND, NC, MT, GA, AK).

Let's take a look at how FiveThirtyEight breaks down each of these states in terms of polling average, trend adjustment, 538 regression, and 538 prediction...

This map shows a baseline of Obama 200, McCain 139.

John McCain's best slicing and dicing of the public polling data within the 18 states is the polling average. Obama leads in Iowa (+6.2%), Wisconsin (+6.0%), New Hampshire (+6.0%), Pennsylvania (+5.5%), New Mexico (+4.3%), Ohio (+4.0%), Colorado (+2.5%), and Michigan (+1.9%) for a total of 93 EVs. McCain's states are North Dakota (+0.6%), Florida (+1.4%), Indiana (+1.8%), Missouri (+2.2%), Nevada (+2.8%), North Carolina (+4.7%), Alaska (+5.7%), Montana (+7.3%), and Georgia (+8.6%) for 93 EVs. Virginia is dead even, so after adding in the base EVs, the tally would be Obama 293, McCain 232, Unallocated 13.

When we adjust for trends in the polling data, we find ourselves in landslide territory. Obama leads in Iowa (+9.3%), New Hampshire (+9.0%), Wisconsin (+8.8%), Pennsylvania (+8.5%), Ohio (+7.1%), New Mexico (+6.1%), Colorado (+5.2%), Michigan (+4.6%), North Dakota (+4.4%), Virginia (+3.7%), Missouri (+3.3%), Indiana (+2.1%), and Florida (+1.0%), for a total of 158 EVs. McCain holds North Carolina (+0.5%), Nevada (+0.8%), Alaska (+2.8%), Montana (+3.1%), and Georgia (+5.4%), for 41 EVs. Under trend adjustment, the tally adding to our base would be Obama 358, McCain 180.

Under the 538 regression model, Obama leads in Iowa and New Hampshire (both +10.0%), Wisconsin (+8.7%), Pennsylvania (+8.6%), Michigan (+8.0%), Colorado (+7.1%), Ohio (+7.0%), Nevada (+5.4%), New Mexico (+5.2%), Virginia (+3.0%), Florida (+1.6%), and Missouri (+0.5%) for 149 EVs. McCain holds Montana (+0.3%), North Dakota (+2.0%), North Carolina (+2.5%), Alaska and Georgia (both +3.6%), and Indiana (+3.7%) for 50 EVs. Added to our base, the regression tally would be Obama 349, McCain 189.

Finally, the 538 projections as of June 25 show Obama winning Iowa (+9.4%), New Hampshire (+9.3%), Wisconsin (+8.8%), Pennsylvania (+8.5%), Ohio (+7.1%), New Mexico (+6.1%), Colorado (+5.8%), Michigan (+5.2%), Virginia (+3.6%), Missouri (+2.7%), Florida and Indiana (+1.1%) and Nevada (+0.7%) for 160 EVs. McCain projects to hold North Carolina (+0.8%), North Dakota (+0.9%), Montana (+1.8%), Alaska (+3.0%), and Georgia (+5.0%) for 39 EVs. With the baseline, Obama 360, McCain 178.

Under these numbers, McCain needs to gain 2.5% on the polling averages to win (adding Virginia, Michigan and Colorado). He needs to gain 5.2% on the trend analysis to win (to flip Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Virginia, North Dakota, Michigan and Colorado). Percentage-wise, McCain's toughest task is the regression model, since to win he has to gain 7.0% all the way up Obama's list to claim Ohio (Michigan, Florida, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada and Ohio). Under our projection figures, McCain needs to reclaim Nevada, Indiana, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, Michigan and Colorado to win the presidency. That's a polling gain of up to 5.8%, again with Colorado being the final clinching state (working back up Obama's list) for the third of our four models.

The bad news for McCain in these numbers that among the "safe" Obama base states, Obama holds double-digit projection leads in every one of those states, with the lone exception of Oregon (+9.4%), discussed yesterday. Minnesota is next closest, projected at Obama +10.9%. The rest are just not remotely in play without a huge game-changing event in the race. Moreover, 538 currently projects a number of McCain's "safe" base states in single digits (alphabetically Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia - see sidebar). While Obama isn't likely to win these states, our models show Obama coming closer to winning them as we sit here in late June than McCain is to winning safe Obama states like Delaware, Maine, Washington, etc.

Finally, there is the matter of the one EV in Nebraska's 2d congressional district, which Obama's camp explicitly added to the list of eighteen. Eventually, we will add broken-out data for this district and refer to the Obama-defined battlegrounds as "the 18.2."

If John McCain's camp identifies a similar roster of states it sees as battlegrounds, we will analyze that list as well.

[Judge Smails]

You all know what I really think of polls.......but all in all, there are many folks in this country that Will NOT vote for a black man....even if they have to vote the opposite party......

Many folks in the past were way up in the polls and lost in November! Many..........on both sides of the isle!

there are many folks in this country that Will NOT vote for a black man....even if they have to vote the opposite party......

Stats please.

I interpret this as meaning you are depending on racists to overwhelm the polls this November and throw the election to McCain.

You'll have to excuse me if I've got just a bit more faith in America than you have.