Poll: Obama Holds Enormous "Voter Enthusiasm" Edge Over McCain

[Yellowdogtexan]

I like numbers and trends. The voter enthasiasm number is usually much closer than this. http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/poll_obama_holds_enormous_vote.phpCheck out these key numbers that were buried in the USA Today poll that was released yesterday:
61% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year's election, while just 35% of Republicans said that.

Also in the poll, Obama's fav/unfav is 64%-31%, while McCain's is 59%-35%.As Mark Murray notes, Obama enjoys an "enthusiasm gap" that is formidable -- the Dem enthusiasm number is nearly twice that of the GOP. It's the sort of thing that could make a real difference in the close states.

The gap becomes even more key in the context of Obama's 50-state strategy: Expectations of an energized voter turnout for Obama will give plausibility to the Obama camp's claims of broadening the map, thus forcing McCain to invest scarce resources in states they might otherwise have been able to more or less ignore.

[Yellowdogtexan]

Voter enthuasim is one of the key numbers that people who understand politics watch because it can help predict turnout. Unenthused voters tend not to vote.

A second major poll shows that mc :cane is having real problems here. http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,5763707.storyMoreover, McCain suffers from a pronounced "enthusiasm gap," especially among the conservatives who usually give Republican candidates a reliable base of support. Among voters who describe themselves as conservative, only 58% say they will vote for McCain; 15% say they will vote for Obama, 14% say they will vote for someone else, and 13% say they are undecided.

By contrast, 79% of voters who describe themselves as liberal say they plan to vote for Obama.

Even among voters who say they do plan to vote for McCain, more than half say they are "not enthusiastic" about their chosen candidate; only 45% say they are enthusiastic. By contrast, 81% of Obama voters say they are enthusiastic, and almost half call themselves "very enthusiastic," a level of zeal that only 13% of McCain's supporters display.

"McCain is not capturing the full extent of the conservative base the way President Bush did in 2000 and 2004," said Susan Pinkus, director of the Times Poll. "Among conservatives, evangelicals and voters who identify themselves as part of the religious right, he is polling less than 60%.

"Meanwhile, Obama is doing well among a broad range of voters," she said. "He's running ahead among women, black voters and other minorities. He's running roughly even among white voters and independents."
mc :cane is having trouble with the base and there is a good chance that a large portion of this base will not turnout and vote in November.

[quiet man]

if the base doesn't show to vote it would be a mistake. it would assure a democratic win in november. :drevil

[Yellowdogtexan]

The polls still show that the Democrats have a big advantage with respect to voter enthusiasm http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/07/record-voter-interest-likely-t.htmlVoters are showing record high levels of engagement in this year's campaign, and if that translates into higher turnout, it is something that may favor Democrats whose ranks have shown more enthusiasm than the Republicans, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Pew says that its poll, conducted June 18-29, found that 72 percent of all voters had given "quite a lot" of thought to the election compared to 58 percent in June 2004 and 46 percent in June 2000.

The Democratic "engagement" figure was 77 percent compared to 72 percent for Republicans and 66 percent for independents. A poll released by Pew earlier this month found that when it came to following the campaign closely, Democrats appeared more interested than Republicans by a 52 percent to 28 percent.

Sixty percent of all voters said they were satisfied with the presidential candidates. But only 49 percent of Republicans held that view, raising a question of how solid McCain's base is. In 2000 and 2004, about three-quarters of Republicans described themselves as satisfied. By contrast, seventy-four percent of Democrats were satisfied with the candidates and the number for independents was 52 percent. That's an increase for the Democrats over 2000 and 2004 election.

Pew says that while Obama's lead over McCain is 48 percent to 40 percent (the margin of error is 2.5 percent), he also leads among voters who say they "strongly" back either candidate by 28 percent to 14 percent. Compare that figure for McCain to George Bush in 2004, whose number was 32 percent. Independents are evenly split between the two candidates but 46 percent are undecided, compared to 28 percent at this point of the 2004 campaign.
Democrats are far more likely to show up at the polls compared to republicans due to the fact that many republicans simply are not happy with mc :cane

[Zanoog]

Obama is like a rock star in this race. He's a phenomenon! The outsider. Amazing charisma.

[patriotsblade]

http://i29.tinypic.com/34djw44.jpg

:rofl :lmao

[Lone Laugher]

But...but....those numbers don't mean anything THIS YEAR because all the Obama enthusiasm comes from drooling idiots who probably can't find their local polling place due to their being blinced by Obamania! They are so enthralled with him that they will probably stay in their homes kneeling in prayer in front of a picture of Obama...instead of actually voting!

McCain has hope yet....right?

[Wabash]

Obama is like a rock star in this race. He's a phenomenon! The outsider. Amazing charisma.

Pretty damn silly isn't it? Rock star w/o Experience in foreign affairs...but, can he sing?

JFK had amazing charisma....but he earned it!

[Wabash]

John McCain has resolve, he earned that the hard way as a prisoner of war....his First Person acct. of that 5 1/2 years is truly amazing!

Obie has resolve too, but there is NO comparison!

[Yellowdogtexan]

John McCain has resolve, he earned that the hard way as a prisoner of war....his First Person acct. of that 5 1/2 years is truly amazing!!Resolve does not matter if your voters do not show up. These poll results show that the Democrats supporting Obama are far more likely to show up at the polls compared to the republican supporters of mc :cane. I posted these results because they are such a large spread compared to prior elections. Compared to both 2000 and 2004, republican voters are less happy and are far more likely to stay home compared to Democratic voters. If these numbers hold up, it will be a fun night in November for Obama.

[Lone Laugher]

Did anyone else hear the lie that McCain told regarding his stay at the Hanoi Hilton?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONEiXHC7ReE

I wonder how much of his POW story is fabricated like this BS? I think this guy is just full of shit most of the time.

[Yellowdogtexan]

The latest fundraising numbers released today really show the difference in voter enthuaism between mc :cane and Senator Obama. In June, mc :cane raised $22 million (his best month) and Senator Obama raised $52 million (his second best month). Buth what is interesting it the percentage of supporters who have contributed to the two campaigns http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/17/8221/55309/359/552891As the article notes, McCain raised $22 million in June, which, in any other year, would be quite a in and of itself. But it's clear that whatever fears existed over the last month or so that enthusiasm for an Obama candidacy would wane and affect his fundraising was misguided. Indeed, it is McCain who is the victim of a seemingly insurmountable enthusiasm gap.

A Gallup poll at the end of June revealed that "61% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year's election, while just 35% of Republicans said that." A recent Pew poll (PDF) found that 13% of Obama supporters have donated to his campaign, while just 7% of Republicans who support McCain have donated to his campaign.

In short, what was true at the beginning of this race is still true, and will likely be true up until election day: Democratic voters are more engaged in the process, more enthusiastic about their candidate, and more likely to reach into their pockets--even at $5, $10, or $20 at a time--to put an end to Republican governance. There is good data out there that people who have contributed to a campaign are far more likely to actually vote. The difference in enthuasim is really amazing here and is not good news for mc :cane

[Wabash]

if the base doesn't show to vote it would be a mistake. it would assure a democratic win in november. :drevil
True...that's why my wife and I, my kids and all my close friends and relatives will be showing up to vote McCain! He's not our best choice for a Pub., but he beats the hell out of voting for a socialist with dirty linen and virtually no experience...

The polls still show that the Democrats have a big advantage with respect to voter enthusiasm http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/07/record-voter-interest-likely-t.htmlDemocrats are far more likely to show up at the polls compared to republicans due to the fact that many republicans simply are not happy with mc :cane
I'm not, but it sure won't stop me from voting for him!

Resolve does not matter if your voters do not show up. These poll results show that the Democrats supporting Obama are far more likely to show up at the polls compared to the republican supporters of mc :cane. I posted these results because they are such a large spread compared to prior elections. Compared to both 2000 and 2004, republican voters are less happy and are far more likely to stay home compared to Democratic voters. If these numbers hold up, it will be a fun night in November for Obama.
And yet.............the ABC news at noon today say it's a Dead Heat!

The latest fundraising numbers released today really show the difference in voter enthuaism between mc :cane and Senator Obama. In June, mc :cane raised $22 million (his best month) and Senator Obama raised $52 million (his second best month). Buth what is interesting it the percentage of supporters who have contributed to the two campaigns http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/17/8221/55309/359/552891There is good data out there that people who have contributed to a campaign are far more likely to actually vote. The difference in enthuasim is really amazing here and is not good news for mc :cane
MCCain's numbers for July went way up!

[Trueblue]

Electorally, it is not a dead heat, Wabash.

And one more time, you are bad at picking the best of the alternatives. You picked Bush twice. You're lucky the rest of us let you vote. :snicker

[Yellowdogtexan]

MCCain's numbers for July went way up!Have these numbers been announced yet? Obama got over 200,000 contributions the week after mc :cane started his silly and false commercials including 100,000 contributions on July 31, 2008 with one third of these being new contributors. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFMUfjUI5Ro