Battleground States-Florida

[Yellowdogtexan]

Senator Obama has been behind in Florida for some time due to the primary mess. This is encouraging. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/washington/AP-Poll-2008-Florida.html?_r=3&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=sloginTHE NUMBERS

Barack Obama, 47 percent

John McCain, 43 percent

Obama wins Florida's youngest voters by a wide margin, while he and McCain split those age 35 and up. Nearly one in four say they are less likely to support McCain because of his age; if elected he would be 72 when sworn in as president. One in 20 says the same about Obama's being black. Whites back McCain, 50 percent to 40 percent, while virtually all blacks support Obama. Independents lean toward Obama by 10 percentage points, and more of them oppose Hillary Rodham Clinton being Obama's running mate than support it.If Florida is truly in play, there will be a large number of battleground states to watch

[Yellowdogtexan]

It appears that Florida is in play. An issue that may hurt mc :cane in Florida is the concept of offshore drilling which is a very unpopular concept in Florida. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11154.htmlBy calling for an end to the federal ban on offshore oil drilling, John McCain is placing a risky bet. He is wagering that skyrocketing gas prices have finally reached a tipping point, a threshold moment that has led voters to rethink their strong and long-held opinions against coastal oil exploration.

The stakes couldn’t be higher: If he is wrong, McCain will have seriously damaged his chances in two key states with thousands of miles of coastline — California and Florida — and where opposition to offshore oil drilling has been unwavering. And he will have undermined some of his closest political allies in those states and others, including potential fall battlegrounds such as Virginia and North Carolina.....

“We have 1,300 square miles of coastline here and our whole culture and identity is tied to our coastline,” said Holly Binns, field director for Environment Florida, an environmental advocacy group that opposes offshore oil drilling. “This is a state where if you don’t understand how deep the connections are to our identity and our culture, you could step on a landmine. This could be one of those cases.” Since it appears that mc :cane is already behind in Florida, I will be curious to see if this latest position helps or hurts him with Florida voters.

BTW, if mc :cane loses Florida, then it will be very difficult if not impossible for him to win the Electoral College from all of the projections that I have seen.

[grabsomebench]

I would just about concede Florida to the Republicans and concentrate on other States. The Pro-Israel Jewish block in Florida has been Liebermaned.http://forums.thepoliticalasylum.com/images/smilies/mrsun.gif
:sun

[Yellowdogtexan]

This is interesting http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-flbvoters0712sbjul12,0,7473721.storyAn escalating number of voters registering as Democrats is providing evidence that the 2008 election could produce a wave of support for Barack Obama — and trigger a decades-long shift of party allegiance that could affect elections for a generation.

The numbers are ominous for Republicans: Through May, Democratic voter registration in Broward County was up 6.7 percent. Republican registrations grew just 3 percent while independents rose 2.8 percent.

Democrats have posted even greater gains statewide, up 106,508 voters from January through May, compared with 16,686 for the Republicans.

"It's a huge swing," says Marian Johnson, political director for the Florida Chamber of Commerce. "I looked at that and said, 'Wow.'"

Democrats said Friday it's proof of what they have been seeing for months.

"Who would want to join a failed party? And that's what the Republican Party is today, a failed party," said U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler, D- Delray Beach, co-chairman of Obama's Florida campaign.

Broward Democratic Chairman Mitch Ceasar credits President Bush for increasing Democratic numbers. "The Democratic brand has cycled back."

The registration numbers could provide a jolt to Republicans and invigorate their efforts.

State Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff, R- Fort Lauderdale, was blunt: Republicans need to do a better job.

The registration numbers "got my attention; I'll be calling our party chairman this afternoon," she said.
See also http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2008/07/democrats-out-r.htmlJohn McCain's Florida problems may be growing: Democratic voters have out-registered Republicans by a nearly 7-to-1 margin since January.

State totals show Democrats gained a net of 106,508 voters from January through May, compared with 16,686 for the GOP -- a shift that could muddle any McCain campaign math that banks on a Florida win to gain the White House.

New Democratic registration outnumbered Republicans in six Central Florida counties -- even heavily Republican Seminole County. Orange County actually lost nearly 2,500 GOP voters and gained 11,800 Democrat voters so far.

"It's a clear sign that Democrats are re-surging in Florida," said political scientist Aubrey Jewett with the University of Central Florida. "I think the numbers certainly should worry the McCain campaign."

[Lone Laugher]

You beat me to it, Dog. Something tells me that Florida won't be a GOP bitch this year.