Battleground State-Virginia

[Yellowdogtexan]

This could be a major deal if this state becomes a true battleground or flips to the Democrats http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_electionBarack Obama continues to gain ground on John McCain in Virginia, for the first time edging ahead of his Republican opponent for the presidency in a state Democrats are increasingly hopeful of peeling away from the GOP.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Virginia voters finds Obama with a statistically insignificant one-percentage point lead over McCain, 45% to 44%. Five percent (5%) favor a third-party candidate, and 7% are undecided. Last month, with Hillary Clinton still in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, McCain led Obama 47% to 44%. (See Video)

This marks the fourth time in five polls that the two candidates have been within five points of each other in Virginia, confirming the state’s competitive status. The one exception came in March, at the height of the initial Jeremiah Wright coverage, when McCain was up by eleven points. The Obama campaign has listed Virginia as a battleground state and plans to devote a great deal of resources to this state. The republicans have already in effect given up on the Senate race in this state and so that may help the Obama campaign.

It will be interesting to see if this state flips and go blue.

[Yellowdogtexan]

Here is some more on this race http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/poll_obama_just_edging_mccain.phpBarack Obama could very well end up flipping Virginia -- a state that has voted Republican in every election since 1968 -- over into the Democratic column, a new Rasmussen poll suggests.

The numbers: Obama 45%, McCain 44%, within the ±4% margin of error. A month ago, McCain led by a 47%-44% margin. This is on top of a SurveyUSA poll from a few weeks ago, which gave Obama a 49%-42% lead.

The Obama campaign has aggressively targeted Virginia as a state they think they can win over, thanks to the growth in the Democratic voter base that has happened there over the past ten years. If they can successfully take its 13 electoral votes, it would become very difficult for John McCain to get a winning map without a state that Republicans have normally been able to count on.

[Wabash]

Let's all go blue, just to counter act the red! That's a good reason.....right? Doesn't matter if Obie is a novice with a silver tongue...does it?

[Sweet Tart]

We elected Mark Warner :shrug

[Yellowdogtexan]

We elected Mark Warner :shrugFor Gov. and the Commonwealth of Virginia will elect Mark Warner as Senator in November. However, the last time that the Commonwealth went democratic in presidential race was1964.

[Yellowdogtexan]

If Viriginia flips and goes blue, then the race may well be over. Here is another poll that confirms that Virginia may be in play http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/another_poll_finds_obama_leadi.phpAnother poll is showing that Barack Obama could potentially win Virginia, a historically red state that has been trending Democratic and would represent a major breakthrough if the Dems could pick it up.

The numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the ±3.3% margin of error. This is on top of a Rasmussen poll from two days ago, which gave Obama a one-point lead.

Although this state hasn't voted Dem since 1964, the Obama campaign is aggressively targeting it thanks to the Democratic growth in northern Virginia. Local geographic shifts like this -- combined with the Obama campaign's big treasury, which allows Obama to compete aggressively in more states than past Dems have -- suggest that the map of competitive states really may be much broader than usual this year.
This could be a major battleground state

[Yellowdogtexan]

If you need proof that Virginia is in play or is a battleground state, then look at where mc :cane is buying ad time. http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/mccain_campaign_buys_ad_time_i.phpHere's a sign that the McCain campaign could be worried that Obama has a real chance of winning in Virginia, a state that's historically voted red but has been trending blue.

The McCain camp has bought up ad time for a sixty-second spot in at least four major Virginia media markets, a Democratic ad buyer tells me. The markets: Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, and Tri-Cities.

A McCain aide confirmed the buy but declined to discuss specifics.

The ad is set to begin airing next Tuesday, and the buy is a moderate one, the buyer says, meaning that the ad will probably run four or five times a week.

"At this point in the campaign, that's a good start," the buyer says. He added that it shows that the McCain campaign realizes that Camp Obama's efforts in the state -- Obama is airing an ad and has sent key staff -- isn't "just a head-fake."

"It shows they're worried about Virginia," the buyer said.
The polling shows that Virginia is in play and it would be very difficult for mc :cane to win the electoral college if he loses Virginia

[Cookie Parker]

Obama is setting up about 12 offices here in Indiana, too. Indiana traditionally votes republican and is a hardcore evangelical state. I think he could easily get the republicans on board to the democrat party. We have lost a lot of jobs and Bush's disaster plans have failed those hit by flooding this spring...

I even see where the republican governor and his privatizing so many tax generated areas such as the I 69 toll road will be an issue to swing Indiana into a democrat mode this year.

Smart guy...not too inexperience...he did a great job choosing his campaign people..I think Obama will do just as nicely surrounding himself with smart people in the presidency...no horse judges for him, fer sure.!!!

[Yellowdogtexan]

Indiana may yet emerge as a legitimate battleground state. I have seen a number of polls showing that Obama may win this state

[Cookie Parker]

Indiana may yet emerge as a legitimate battleground state. I have seen a number of polls showing that Obama may win this state

It would be a HUGE change in evangelists AND republicans if he is even CLOSE....

[Yellowdogtexan]

This is interesting.http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/obama_campaign_opens_20_new_fi.phpHere's another real sign that the Obama campaign is dead serious about making a real play for Virginia.

The Obama campaign plans to open 20 new field offices in the state -- and at least five of them are in very red areas where Dems have traditionally feared to tread, Obama's Virginia director of communications, Kevin Griffis, confirms to me.

The Obama team is setting up shop in Winchester and Bristol, both of which are in areas that voted for Bush in 2004 by at least 25 points. Camp Obama is also adding an office in Harrisonburg, which went for Bush by 13 and is in the reliably-red Shenandoah Valley.

There will also be a new office in Castlewood, which is in the coalfields near West Virginia and Kentucky and went for Bush by eight, and in Martinsville, whose surrounding county went for Bush by 13 points.

Obama's Virginia campaign director, Mitch Stewart, says he's hoping to turn the network of field offices into the foundation of an all-out bottom-up effort in the state. "The new offices represent the frame upon which our neighbor-to-neighbor, grassroots campaign will be built," Stewart says.

It's getting interesting.

[Trueblue]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html

The RPC average is +0.7 McCain, but part of the average is +8.0 from the middle of May. The more recent polls have Obama in the lead within the margin of error.