Many historians see little chance for McCain

[Yellowdogtexan]

This is interesting if you like history. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11090.htmlOne week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.

“This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

“McCain shouldn’t win it,” said presidential historian Joan Hoff, a professor at Montana State University and former president of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. She compared McCain’s prospects to those of Hubert Humphrey, whose 1968 loss to Richard Nixon resulted in large part from the unpopularity of sitting Democratic president Lyndon Johnson.

“It is one of the worst political environments for the party in power since World War II,” added Alan Abramowitz, a professor of public opinion and the presidency at Emory University. His forecasting model — which factors in gross domestic product, whether a party has completed two terms in the White House and net presidential approval rating — gives McCain about the same odds as Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and Carter in 1980 — both of whom were handily defeated in elections that returned the presidency to the previously out-of-power party. “It would be a pretty stunning upset if McCain won,” Abramowitz said.

What’s more, Republicans have held the presidency for all but 12 years since the South became solidly Republican in the realignment of 1968 — which is among the longest runs with one party dominating in American history. “These things go in cycles,” said presidential historian Robert Dallek, a professor at the University of California at Los Angeles. “The public gets tired of one approach to politics. There is always a measure of optimism in this country, so they turn to the other party.”

That desire for change also tends to manifest itself at the end of a president’s second term. Only twice in the 20th century has a party won a third consecutive term in the White House, most recently in 1988, when George H.W. Bush replaced the term-limited Ronald Reagan, who was about twice as popular in the last year of his presidency as President George W. Bush is now.

But the biggest obstacle in McCain’s path may be running in the same party as the most unpopular president America has had since at least the advent of modern polling. Only Harry Truman and Nixon — both of whom were dogged by unpopular wars abroad and political scandals at home — have been nearly as unpopular in their last year in office, and both men’s parties lost the presidency in the following election.....

Still, many historians remain extremely skeptical about McCain’s prospects. “I can’t think of an upset where the underdog faced quite the odds that McCain faces in this election,” said Sidney Milkis, a professor of presidential politics at the University of Virginia. Even "Truman didn’t face as difficult a political context as McCain.”These historians are looking at some interesting patterns and these patterns are not good news for mc :cane.

[wvpeach]

Well, the historians are wrong. I believe the Democrats have thrown this election. They don't want to hold the presidency when the economy comes tumbling down and get blamed for that.

McCain will be our next president and I pray God has mercy on the American people because its going to get very bad economically in this country under McCain.

[AYFR]

This should have been an overwhelming Democratic victory, till they tossed it out the window.

[Judge Smails]

This should have been an overwhelming Democratic victory, till they tossed it out the window.

And this insight is based upon....?????

[Trueblue]

I think his point is that we nominated the black guy.

I am not suggesting that Rev is racist, I don't think that at all.

I think that much of the negative reaction to Obama is racist, but it's framed in other terms. The Dems would have an easier time of it with some voters if they had nominated another white man, and we had some fine ones running. My personal pick was Joe Biden. Joe Biden's not any more conservative than Obama, of course, but the color of his skin, and his gender, would have made him easier for some in this nation to accept.

[John Gault]

This is interesting if you like history. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11090.htmlThese historians are looking at some interesting patterns and these patterns are not good news for mc :cane.

All that and Obama is still barely ahead in the most recent polls.

Keep on dreaming that America will elect it's forst Socialist president and black to boot!

[John Gault]

I think his point is that we nominated the black guy.

I am not suggesting that Rev is racist, I don't think that at all.

I think that much of the negative reaction to Obama is racist, but it's framed in other terms. The Dems would have an easier time of it with some voters if they had nominated another white man, and we had some fine ones running. My personal pick was Joe Biden. Joe Biden's not any more conservative than Obama, of course, but the color of his skin, and his gender, would have made him easier for some in this nation to accept.

Much of white America will not vote for a black man, that is a fact and you know it.

I don't care that he is black, I care that he is an out of touch elitist hardcore leftist!

[issac the dragon]

TB, I think you are wrong. I think that Obama's supporters want to believe that it is all about his color. Because they simply cannot accept it that a lot of people find him a throughly dislikable man. A cookie cutter progressive, without a single new idea, and arrogant to a degree I have never seen before, and I imagine a lot of people haven't.

Even Obama's fans agree that his campaign is a movement. What you can't see is that not everyone gets into a movement. And the people who don't, well, they don't get it. What ever it is, we don't get it.

Obama should have left McBush far behind. That he hasn't is indictitive of the inability of so many to feel the man's charmisa. That is all Obama has. So if someone can't feel it, there is nothing.

McBush is easy. He's likeable enough. If you can gag down his ideas. I can't, but that has never changed an election. I think RR must have had the same effect on Republicans. Dems never understood it. But it wasn't because he was white. Dems simply couldn't get it.

[Yellowdogtexan]

It will be interesting to see if these historical trends will overcome the racism and bigotry of some. The people who are not going to vote for Senator Obama because he is not white were not going to vote for a democrat anyway.

Remember the GOP is the party that is built on racism. Go look at the GOP Southern Strategy if you need another history lesson.

I find these historical trends to be intresting. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

[issac the dragon]

I completely agree. The Southern Strategy will rise again. But it is no loss to the Dems.

I do get tired of the implication that anyone who doesn't like Obama is a bigot. It is possible to dislike a black person without being a bigot. Black people do it all the time. Get over it. I just think Obama is an empty suit. Three years in the Senate where he voted present 85% of the time. Now that is a resume to brag about.

[Cookie Parker]

ut the biggest obstacle in McCain’s path may be running in the same party as the most unpopular president America has had since at least the advent of modern polling. Only Harry Truman and Nixon — both of whom were dogged by unpopular wars abroad and political scandals at home — have been nearly as unpopular in their last year in office, and both men’s parties lost the presidency in the following election.....

Apparently the "moral majority": now approves of all types of criminality. Having no pride in this nation and its constitutional government makes the republicans the most anti-American party EVER.

I'm not sure who will win. But I am sure the republicans have become corrupt, criminal and anti-America in their attitudes and behaviors the last 8 years...

[Ringo]

This is interesting if you like history. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11090.htmlThese historians are looking at some interesting patterns and these patterns are not good news for mc :cane.

These are wacko Political Science idiots, who can make sheep like YOU believe anything!! They leave out the fact that teh REAL AMERICANS are watching closely and McCains VP choice will tell the story!! Those of us who still believe in a Founders America, and those of us who will work for a living, serve our Country if needed, and carry you wienie whining wimps on our backs, will not let America in the hands a of a Muslim loving White Hating, unexperienced Uber-Liberal idiot, take it the Bank Shyster!!! Have you found a hiding place yet for when the Revolution comes, remember the Revolution that your friend Bill Ayres adn his wimp cowards were going to try? I flat guarantee when hard assed Americans bring it, it will get brought hard, not no wimpy Liberal way!!!:godzilla:mw:godzilla:mw:godzilla:nerd:godzi lla:pb:godzilla

[Trueblue]

Much of white America will not vote for a black man, that is a fact and you know it.

I don't care that he is black, I care that he is an out of touch elitist hardcore leftist!

Much of white America WILL vote for a black man, though.

You are a hardcore out-of-touch hardcore fascist. You have no clue what a moderate is.

TB, I think you are wrong. I think that Obama's supporters want to believe that it is all about his color. Because they simply cannot accept it that a lot of people find him a throughly dislikable man. A cookie cutter progressive, without a single new idea, and arrogant to a degree I have never seen before, and I imagine a lot of people haven't.



Exactly how many times, and in how many ways, do I have to say that I AGREE, NOT EVERYONE WHO IS OPPOSED TO OBAMA IS OPPOSED BECAUSE OF COLOR. I HAVEN'T HEARD A SINGLE OBAMA SUPPORTER WHO BELIEVED THAT IT WAS ALL ABOUT COLOR.



Please give me an estimate, because we Obama supporters get tired of explaining the same thing over and over.

I do believe that your insistence that he is arrogant is entirely misplaced. You have stated that the Obama people were rude to the Clinton people, the Clinton people were not only publicly rude, they also did a lot of tacky shit to the Obama people.

[Judge Smails]

These are wacko Political Science idiots, who can make sheep like YOU believe anything!! They leave out the fact that teh REAL AMERICANS are watching closely and McCains VP choice will tell the story!! Those of us who still believe in a Founders America, and those of us who will work for a living, serve our Country if needed, and carry you wienie whining wimps on our backs, will not let America in the hands a of a Muslim loving White Hating, unexperienced Uber-Liberal idiot, take it the Bank Shyster!!! Have you found a hiding place yet for when the Revolution comes, remember the Revolution that your friend Bill Ayres adn his wimp cowards were going to try? I flat guarantee when hard assed Americans bring it, it will get brought hard, not no wimpy Liberal way!!!:godzilla:mw:godzilla:mw:godzilla:nerd:godzi lla:pb:godzilla

So what are you proposing to do ringo?

Start a red-neck revolution with yourself at the head of it's army, storm Washington D.C and set up the government of fuckistan?

Sleep it off.

:charge

[Trueblue]

Fuckistan :snicker

[jim]

So what are you proposing to do ringo?

Start a red-neck revolution with yourself at the head of it's army, storm Washington D.C and set up the government of fuckistan?

Sleep it off.

:charge


Good Idea:rooster:lmao:lmao:lmao

[wvpeach]

The Democrats are smart on this one. No point being the ones in office when the economy comes tumbling down. Leave it to the Republicans its their policies and fault that its coming down anyway. Let them be the ones in charge when it tanks .

That will quarantee that a Republican can't get elected dog catcher for at least a generation .

[AYFR]

I think his point is that we nominated the black guy.

I am not suggesting that Rev is racist, I don't think that at all.

I think that much of the negative reaction to Obama is racist, but it's framed in other terms. The Dems would have an easier time of it with some voters if they had nominated another white man, and we had some fine ones running. My personal pick was Joe Biden. Joe Biden's not any more conservative than Obama, of course, but the color of his skin, and his gender, would have made him easier for some in this nation to accept.
Exactly, thank you TB.


Before anyone says it no I am not racist, but Edwards was the Dems best shot.

[Judge Smails]

Exactly, thank you TB.


Before anyone says it no I am not racist, but Edwards was the Dems best shot.

Straw grasping at at's best.

[Judge Smails]

The Democrats are smart on this one. No point being the ones in office when the economy comes tumbling down. Leave it to the Republicans its their policies and fault that its coming down anyway. Let them be the ones in charge when it tanks .

That will quarantee that a Republican can't get elected dog catcher for at least a generation .

NEWS FLASH

That will quarantee that a Republican can't get elected dog catcher for at least a generation

They've already managed to do that.

The Democrats have always pulled the republicans out of the sewer......Hoover/FDR is a good example.

[wvpeach]

MCCain will be our next president. So the American people haven't learned the lesson yet. But I predict if the country survives at all in tact from the MC Cain presidency trickle down economics and Republican crazies will be a thing of the past. Reaganomics will go down in the history books as a failed example of Americas unregulated capitalism gone bad.

[Yellowdogtexan]

The Texas GOP is the biggest bunch of racist idiots in the world. They were selling a button this weekend at the GOP state convention in Houston that stated If Obama is President will we still call it the White House.http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/06/stick-a-pin-in-it.html

[wvpeach]

That is a really shameful thing to say. Unfortunately a lot of the right wingers have no shame.

[toxic]

The religion that controls American politics has won with either candidate.

They both are puppets to AIPAC and will lick Israel's boots.

Those people are good at what they do - Getting Control. I can see it happening on this board.

About 15 years ago my company began teaching Jewish methodology for running the business. It was quite a change from the prior "Good-old-boy" mentality. I'm sure it works much better if you are trained from youth and a religious Zelot.

[Lone Laugher]

Holy Shit!!! The future depends on who McCain chooses as a running mate!!?? If he picks the wrong guy, hard-working patriots are going to revolt! Which brewery will sponsor your tank, Ringo?

[Trueblue]

The Democrats have always pulled the republicans out of the sewer......Hoover/FDR is a good example.

:werd

Edwards was very popular with many people and did well in the head to head match-ups in polling. But I feel that if he were the nominee, we'd be hearing the same stuff about lack of experience.

As if spending years in the Congress made somebody qualified to lead a nation. :rofl

The Texas GOP is the biggest bunch of racist idiots in the world. They were selling a button this weekend at the GOP state convention in Houston that stated http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/06/stick-a-pin-in-it.html

May it backfire and the ashes rain down on their heads.

[Judge Smails]

"Desperate times call for desperate measures"-GOP


The great thing about them playing the race card, is it motivates more Democrats to the polls.

Crap like this is pandering to their ever dwindling base which consisits of bigots, KKK wannabes and facists.

I hope they pass out 200 million of those buttons.

[Yellowdogtexan]

The Texas GOP is denying any knowledge of the buttons and are pretending to be embarassed by them.

[Ringo]

Much of white America WILL vote for a black man, though.

You are a hardcore out-of-touch hardcore fascist. You have no clue what a moderate is.



Exactly how many times, and in how many ways, do I have to say that I AGREE, NOT EVERYONE WHO IS OPPOSED TO OBAMA IS OPPOSED BECAUSE OF COLOR. I HAVEN'T HEARD A SINGLE OBAMA SUPPORTER WHO BELIEVED THAT IT WAS ALL ABOUT COLOR.



Please give me an estimate, because we Obama supporters get tired of explaining the same thing over and over.

I do believe that your insistence that he is arrogant is entirely misplaced. You have stated that the Obama people were rude to the Clinton people, the Clinton people were not only publicly rude, they also did a lot of tacky shit to the Obama people.

And just think about a YEAR AND A HALF AGO, it was WE HILLARY SUPPORTERS until the sheep realized an IDIOT could beat her, and like the BOOK, the Great Exodus commenced, led by TB & Doggie and thier:sheep:mw!!!!:twirl:dance:lmao:pisslaugh

So naive, so very Politically Immature, its almost sad, but yet funny thing to watch, so keep up the entertainment, you guys are hilarious!!

We will have 78 degrees of Global Warming today, around 6 degrees below normal, just as it has been for nearly 2 years TB?? Should I panic? Should I send Al and his Global Criminal Bank more Carbon money? How will I be saved from Hot weather, Polar Bear Attacks, and horny Eskimo women??? TELL ME!! TELL ME PLEASE!!!

[Trueblue]

Now Ringo, you know that's not true. Hillary was never my first choice. As young as you claim to be, why do you act so senile? :cane

[Yellowdogtexan]

While I think Senator Clinton would be a great president, she was my fourth choice. The Democrats had such a strong field that any of the top five or six candidates would have no trouble winning the November elections.

[Trueblue]

:werd

Obama, Biden, Edwards, Clinton, Richardson, Dodd.

I liked em all. :)

[wvpeach]

Electronic voting machines

Electronic voting machines

The election is a sham designed to lull the American people into thinking they still pick the president.

We don't.

[Yellowdogtexan]

Racism is still alive in the US but the people who will not vote for Obama would also not vote for any Democrats.

The purpose of this thread is to discuss some valid historical trends. Again, historians have looked at a number of factors that have affected if a party will continue in power after two terms. Here these factors are bad news for mc :cane. mc :cane may win but he has history working against him.

[Yellowdogtexan]

Electronic voting machines

Electronic voting machines

The election is a sham designed to lull the American people into thinking they still pick the president.

We don't.Florida will have a paper record for every vote. Other states are moving in that direction.

In 2004, it did not appear that the voting machines made as much difference as the actions taken by the republican secretary of state in Ohio to suppress the vote. We now have a Democrat as the Ohio Sec. of State and he will be overseeing the voting machines.

[wvpeach]

Sorry to break it to your yellow dog.

But much study has been done on the voting machines and experts say after every clinical trial that vote totals can be changed in 30 -60 seconds with no trace that they were ever changed being left behind.

I worked for a Newspaper in Ohio during the 2004 elections. It was my bad luck to handle the advertising budgets of many of the candidates . My really bad luck that my son was dating Betty Montgomery's personal aid. I am all too aware of what went on in Ohio and lots of other states during 2004.

All that did was teach them to be more careful not to get caught when they change the vote totals in the 2008 elections.

[Yellowdogtexan]

This is amusing. The Texas GOP is shocked, shocked I tell you to found out that racist buttons were sold at the Texas Republican Convention. http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2008/06/18/obama_leader_says_republicans.htmlHans Klingler, spokesman for the Republican Party of Texas, said party officials had no idea the button was for sale until they saw it blogged. He said that the party doesn’t review the content of booths during the convention, adding that there will be procedures put in place in the future to scout for objectionable items.

“We were stunned; the whole convention was about unity and diversity,” Klingler said. “It was heartbreaking.”

“We would never want anything offensive or overtly bigoted to be at our convention,” he said.

Klingler said the party plans to donate its $1,500 in proceeds from the booth rental to flood relief in the Midwest.

[Yellowdogtexan]

Sorry to break it to your yellow dog.

But much study has been done on the voting machines and experts say after every clinical trial that vote totals can be changed in 30 -60 seconds with no trace that they were ever changed being left behind.If this was really the case, then the GOP would have used this tool in 2006. The lost of the Ohio Statehouse, Congress and the Senate are all things that the GOP wanted to avoid at all costs. I remember being a little worried when Rove announced that he had THE MATH on these elections and was happy when the results of the elections came out.

I spent 2004 in Broward County as part of the Kerry Edwards voter protection team. I know that there was extensive testing on the machines and that every step that could be taken legally was taken.

In this election cycle, the Ohio Sec. of State is a Democrat and I expect Ohio to be a far cleaner and better runned election with people carefully watching these machines.

[wvpeach]

Diebold and other voting machine manufacturers have patented the programs that run the machines. Because of this they refuse to release the programs for testing. No doubt a die bold employee who believes in democracy put some of them on the web for a short period of time. Universities and computer experts tested them and said they are completely hackable. Some experts even suggested they had been designed that way on purpose.

I am well aware of what went on in Ohio in 2004. I worked for a newspaper as a Advertising exc and handled a lot of the campaign ad budgets there. Trust me Ohio Republicans never thought Ohio would vote in a Dem as they normally would not. They didn't count on all the Republican corruption in Ohio changing that fact. They will never take that for granted again.

Voting machines are easily manipulated to say whatever they want the final results to be.

I have two 80 plus year old aunts who have worked the polling stations for most of their lives. They haven't got a clue now as to who wins or looses now at the end of the night. They have to wait on the state machines to give them their precinct totals.