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View Full Version : Democratic turnout in early Texas voting worries GOP


Yellowdogtexan
02-29-2008, 07:56 PM
While some part of the huge turnout by Democrats may be due to republicans playing games, the GOP is worried about this turnout. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/29054.htmlEarly voting for Texas’ March 4th primary ended Friday with turnout numbers that shattered all previous records.

The vast majority of those ballots were cast in the Democratic primary, a turnout that gave Republican officials pause in this traditionally "red" state.

A final tally wasn’t immediately available Friday afternoon, but as of Wednesday, about 805,000 people had voted in the state’s 15 biggest counties, according to the Texas Secretary of State’s web site. More than 600,000 of those voters are participating in the Democratic primary.

The numbers far outpace the early turnout in primaries in recent years. In 2000, about 315,000 voters cast early primary ballots in the 15 largest counties. Less than 300,000 cast early ballots in the 2002 and 2004 primaries.

In Tarrant County, approximately 2,100 votes were being cast per hour on Friday, according to Tarrant County Elections Administrator Steve Raborn. In contrast, only 3,300 people voted in the county on the entire last day of early voting in 2004.

“We have never seen this kind of early voting turnout in a Primary Election,” Raborn said.

Republicans expressed concern that the unusually high Democratic turnout could spell trouble for Republican candidates in November.

“The numbers speak for themselves, there’s work to be done,” said Bech Bruun in an email to Republicans Friday. Bruun is the executive director of Texas Victory 2008, a project of the Texas Republican Party focused on mobilizing voters.

Yet even Republican primary turnout is high this year, just nowhere near the stunning results on the Democratic side, where some Republicans have taken advantage of the state’s open primary process to cast a vote in a still-disputed presidential race.

Causing unease around the state is how the soaring turnout will affect other races on the ballot. Some campaigns are expressing concern that there are likely more voters than usual who know little about the candidates in local races, making it difficult to guess how they may be deciding who to support.According to what I read, the number of ballots in the Democratic primary are still 3 times the number in the GOP primary in Harris county. That is a huge difference.

In 2006, the voters voted out every one of the repubiican state judges who were on the ballot in Dallaw County. The Harris County Democratic party think it may be able to do the same thing this year in Harris County. There are actually contested races to see who would run for state district judge in Harris County. We have not elected a Democrat as a state judge since 1994 or so but that may change with this type of turnout.

The husband of one of my law partners is running for state judge. It would be a pay cut but he wants to take this job on. If these trends hold until the general election, he may well stand a chance in the November elections and we will get some democrats back on the Harris county bench.

patriotsblade
02-29-2008, 08:59 PM
If the Republicans are trying to manipulate the primary/caucus in favor of Obama because they think he'll be easier to beat then someone needs to give them a lesson on how to read a poll.

Maybe send H. Ross Perot down there with a pie-chart or something.

Matt
02-29-2008, 09:39 PM
There are always those who try this method to control both sides but it is not uncommon for it to backfire.
If the Republicans have been watching the Democratic debates instead of just hearing the chosen sections played by Fox, I think they would be a bit afraid of Obama as an opponent ~ but the Pubs have no real choices since it's between two excellent Dem candidates and Mc:cane.

Yellowdogtexan
03-01-2008, 04:33 PM
Paul Burka of Texas Monthly has some great observations here. http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/2008/02/early-birds-ds-still-outpolling-rs-3-to.phpThe early vote totals for Democrats continues to be phenomenal. At the end of the day on Thursday, the next to last day of early voting, here were the statewide numbers:

Democratic primary voters: 696,696
Republican primary voters: 223,631

Some numbers crunchers believe that the Democratic numbers were swelled by Republicans voting in the Democratic primary, accounting for as much as 15% of the total. So, let's subtract 15% of the voters (104,504) from the Democratic total in the state's fifteen largest counties and add them to the Republican side:

D's: 592,192
R's: 328,135

This is still a dominant performance. It is reminiscent of what Texas politics used to be like, back in the seventies and eighties