California Fires consistent with Global Warming Predictions

[Yellowdogtexan]

These fires are consistent with and are what we can expect due to the effects of Global Warming. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071024103856.htmConsistent With Climate Change, Experts Say
ScienceDaily (Oct. 24, 2007) — The catastrophic fires that are sweeping Southern California are consistent with what climate change models have been predicting for years, experts say, and they may be just a prelude to many more such events in the future -- as vegetation grows heavier than usual and then ignites during prolonged drought periods.

"This is exactly what we've been projecting to happen, both in short-term fire forecasts for this year and the longer term patterns that can be linked to global climate change," said Ronald Neilson, a professor at Oregon State University and bioclimatologist with the USDA Forest Service.

"You can't look at one event such as this and say with certainty that it was caused by a changing climate," said Neilson, who was also a contributor to publications of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a co-recipient earlier this month of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.

"But things just like this are consistent with what the latest modeling shows," Neilson said, "and may be another piece of evidence that climate change is a reality, one with serious effects."

The latest models, Neilson said, suggest that parts of the United States may be experiencing longer-term precipitation patterns -- less year-to-year variability, but rather several wet years in a row followed by several that are drier than normal.

"As the planet warms, more water is getting evaporated from the oceans and all that water has to come down somewhere as precipitation," said Neilson. "That can lead, at times, to heavier vegetation loads popping up and creation of a tremendous fuel load. But the warmth and other climatic forces are also going to create periodic droughts. If you get an ignition source during these periods, the fires can just become explosive."

The problems can be compounded, Neilson said, by El Niño or La Nina events. A La Niña episode that's currently under way is probably amplifying the Southern California drought, he said. But when rains return for a period of years, the burned vegetation may inevitably re-grow to very dense levels.

In the future, catastrophic fires such as those going on now in California may simply be a normal part of the landscape," said Neilson.

Fire forecast models developed by Neilson's research group at OSU and the Forest Service rely on several global climate models. When combined, they accurately predicted both the Southern California fires that are happening and the drought that has recently hit parts of the Southeast, including Georgia and Florida, causing crippling water shortages.

In studies released five years ago, Neilson and other OSU researchers predicted that the American West could become both warmer and wetter in the coming century, conditions that would lead to repeated, catastrophic fires larger than any in recent history.

At that time, the scientists suggested that periodic increases in precipitation, in combination with higher temperatures and rising carbon dioxide levels, would spur vegetation growth and add even further to existing fuel loads caused by decades of fire suppression.

Droughts or heat waves, the researchers said in 2002, would then lead to levels of wildfire larger than most observed since European settlement. The projections were based on various "general circulation" models that showed both global warming and precipitation increases during the 21st century.
Get use to fires like this. With the changes to the weather patterns being cause by global warming, these events are going to happen more and more often.

[Oceanbreeze]

Dude-it was ARSON and the fact they haven't had planned burns like we do in AZ. :catfight:catfight:catfight

[Yellowdogtexan]

Dude-it was ARSON and the fact they haven't had planned burns like we do in AZ. Lets see if this article explains it in simple enough concepts for you to understand.
http://climateprogress.org/2007/10/24/global-warming-and-the-california-wildfires/Global warming makes wildfires more likely and more destructive — as many scientific studies have concluded. Why? Global warming leads to more intense droughts, hotter weather, earlier snowmelt (hence less humid late summers and early autumns), and more tree infestations (like the pine beetle). That means wildfires are a dangerous amplifying feedback, whereby global warming causes more wildfires, which release carbon dioxide, thereby accelerating global warming.

The climate-wildfire link should be a special concern in this country where, since 2000, wildfires have burned an area larger than the state of Idaho.

I write this as my San Diego relatives wait anxiously in their hotel room to find out if their Rancho Santa Fe home has been destroyed. This is a beautiful home that I lived in for a month when I moved to the area in the mid-1980s to study at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

Can we say that the brutal San Diego wildfires were directly caused by global warming? Princeton’s Michael Oppenheimer put it this way on NBC Nightly News Tuesday:The weather we’ve seen this fall may or may not be due to the global warming trend, but it’s certainly a clear picture of what the future is going to look like if we don’t act quickly to cut emissions of the greenhouse gases.Thomas Swetnam, University of Arizona climate scientist, who coauthored a major study on the subject (see below) said in 2006:We’re showing warming and earlier springs tying in with large forest fire frequencies. Lots of people think climate change and the ecological responses are 50 to 100 years away. But it’s not 50 to 100 years away–it’s happening now in forest ecosystems through fire.

[Oceanbreeze]

Lets see if this article explains it in simple enough concepts for you to understand.
http://climateprogress.org/2007/10/24/global-warming-and-the-california-wildfires/

Will please turn on the news?

[Yellowdogtexan]

Again, let me try to use small words. Yes I have seen the news just as I saw the attempts by Faux to blame these fires on Al Qaeda. The fact remains that the conditions that is making these fires so fierce and hard to fight are due to global warming. Again, the experts predicted that global warming will create conditions that are extremely favorable for fires like the ones in San Diego and these predictions are coming true. Without the conditions caused by global warming, these fires would be easier to control and would there would be less damage. Hopefully, this is simple enough for you to understand but I doubt it.

[Oceanbreeze]

YDT: LET'S TRY THIS AGAIN.

arson


Main Entry: ar·son
Pronunciation: \ˈär-sən\
Function: noun
Etymology: Anglo-French arsoun, from ars, past participle of arder, ardre to burn, from Latin ardēre — more at ardor
Date: circa 1680
: the willful or malicious burning of property (as a building) especially with criminal or fraudulent intent
— ar·son·ist \-ist\ noun
— ar·son·ous \-əs\ adjective


http://www.enterstageright.com/archive/articles/0700enviroterr.htm

Enviro-terrorism must be stopped

By Scott Tibbs
web posted July 10, 2000

Across the country, domestic terrorism in the name of the environment is on the rise. Groups like the Earth Liberation Front (ELF) spike trees, burn down homes, destroy construction equipment, destroy ski resorts and engage in other acts of terrorism to inflict "economic damage" on people they consider to be doing damage to the environment.

In the past week, there have been two highly publicized incidents of tree spiking in Indiana. The ELF has claimed responsibility for both incidents. Craig Rosebraugh, national spokesman for the ELF and its sister terrorist group the Animal Liberation Front, argues these acts of terrorism are acts of self-defense against those who would damage the environment.

Hogwash.

The ELF and groups like it are thugs, pure and simple, and Rosebraugh is a cowardly publicity hound who hides behind the veil of secrecy that surround ELF terrorists to further his own extremist agenda. The ELF said in a statement that they are determined to protect "every square inch" of forests in the United States, and will continue to destroy property until no more logging takes place.

The most recent tree-spiking incidents illustrate the folly of the ELF's actions. Officials with the Indiana Department of Natural Recourses have stated that the trees now have to be cut down, because if logging is to occur in the future, the spiked trees cannot be allowed to stand as they could cause serious injury or death when a chain saw hits the spike. The ELF is cutting off its nose to spite its ugly face.

It is illegal to spike trees, but the penalties are far too lenient. Tree spiking is attempted murder, pure and simple, and should be treated as such. Enviro-terrorists know the danger a spike presents to loggers when they place them, and do so with complete disregard for human life. The ELF's "warning" to loggers that the trees have been spiked is a feeble attempt to cover up this fact. What would happen if a breakdown of communication had occurred, the logging had proceeded, and someone had died? Could Rosebraugh and the ELF live with themselves knowing they had caused the death of another human being?

Spiking trees is the coward's way out. If the enviro-extremists were truly committed to their cause, they would march into the forest and commit civil disobedience by placing themselves in the way of the logging equipment. I might be able to have a little bit of respect for them if they were willing to put their time, finances, reputations and bodies on the line for their cause, and be willing to face the repercussions of their actions like real men and women. Instead the cowards in the ELF move under cover of darkness and commit acts of terrorism.

What is worse is the increasing number of people who see the ELF as a legitimate group we must initiate a dialogue with. Some people see the terrorist actions of the ELF not as a crime wave that must be halted, but as the actions of well-intended people who are frustrated by the fact that "The System" does not listen to their concerns. If only we would listen to the environmentalists, we would not have to deal with the ELF.

Sorry, but that argument just does not hold water. We have been "listening" to the environmentalists for over thirty years. Legislation has been passed, and continues to be passed, at the national, state, and even local levels in the name of protecting the environment. President Clinton has signed numerous executive orders placing huge parcels of land off-limits to development and logging, and the environment seems to be an issue in every election year. If the ELF would expend half the energy they expend terrorizing the American people into campaigning for candidates who share their views, lobbying Congress and state legislatures, organizing letter-writing campaigns and trying to swing public opinion to their side, they would get a lot more accomplished.

But why doesn't this happen? The answer is simple. Members of the ELF are not political activists. They are thugs, criminals, and terrorists, what Rush Limbaugh accurately calls "human debris".

The time for talk is over and the time for action has begun. Law enforcement must make every effort to find these terrorists and put them away. And it is also time to hold the so-called "legitimate" environmental groups accountable for their support of terrorism. We owe it to the victims of these terrorists to put and end to the ELF.
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[VRWC]

Again, let me try to use small words. Yes I have seen the news just as I saw the attempts by Faux to blame these fires on Al Qaeda. The fact remains that the conditions that is making these fires so fierce and hard to fight are due to global warming. Again, the experts predicted that global warming will create conditions that are extremely favorable for fires like the ones in San Diego and these predictions are coming true. Without the conditions caused by global warming, these fires would be easier to control and would there would be less damage. Hopefully, this is simple enough for you to understand but I doubt it.

You have got to be kidding? Who tried to blame fires on Al Qaeda? You don't really believe anyone is that stupid do you?

Also, didn't they say the same thing about hurricanes after Katrina? And that never happened either did it?

[VRWC]

Dude-it was ARSON and the fact they haven't had planned burns like we do in AZ. :catfight:catfight:catfight

Thank you OB. Arson and lack of planned burns makes perfect sense, unless of course you just don't care about the truth.

[Yellowdogtexan]

You have got to be kidding? Who tried to blame fires on Al Qaeda? You don't really believe anyone is that stupid do you??It was Faux news and of course I did not believe it. Faux was relying on a four year old memo that Faux was claiming was from this June.

[Yellowdogtexan]

YDT: LET'S TRY THIS AGAIN.
arson Let me try again. I am typing very slowly so maybe you might be able to understand. Only 2 of the 17+ fires may be due to arson. Two is less than 17. The fact that arson may have played a role in the initial ignition of a fire is meaningless if the conditions were not ideal for these firest to be a disaster.

Again, the conditions that caused these fires to be so dangerous were predicted by and are consistent with the predictions of the IPCC and other scientists about what the world can expect due to global warming. The reason why these fires were so bad is due to the fact that the ground is so dry due to increased tempatures and lessen rainfall which was predicted by the IPCC

[Wabash]

These fires are consistent with and are what we can expect due to the effects of Global Warming. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071024103856.htmGet use to fires like this. With the changes to the weather patterns being cause by global warming, these events are going to happen more and more often.


Idiocy!
Lets see if this article explains it in simple enough concepts for you to understand.
http://climateprogress.org/2007/10/24/global-warming-and-the-california-wildfires/

Idiocy continues!
Again, let me try to use small words. Yes I have seen the news just as I saw the attempts by Faux to blame these fires on Al Qaeda. The fact remains that the conditions that is making these fires so fierce and hard to fight are due to global warming. Again, the experts predicted that global warming will create conditions that are extremely favorable for fires like the ones in San Diego and these predictions are coming true. Without the conditions caused by global warming, these fires would be easier to control and would there would be less damage. Hopefully, this is simple enough for you to understand but I doubt it.


Still more....
It was Faux news and of course I did not believe it. Faux was relying on a four year old memo that Faux was claiming was from this June.

Still more...........

Let me try again. I am typing very slowly so maybe you might be able to understand. Only 2 of the 17+ fires may be due to arson. Two is less than 17. The fact that arson may have played a role in the initial ignition of a fire is meaningless if the conditions were not ideal for these firest to be a disaster.

Again, the conditions that caused these fires to be so dangerous were predicted by and are consistent with the predictions of the IPCC and other scientists about what the world can expect due to global warming. The reason why these fires were so bad is due to the fact that the ground is so dry due to increased tempatures and lessen rainfall which was predicted by the IPCC
Yada, yada, yada...what a Noodge(sp?) you are!!

These fires have been going on for at least 50 plus years that I know of and will get worse...because...of a larger population living in the area where the dry stuff is at...
You move under an airport runway, you get lots of noise. You move into dry tinderbox country, you get lots of fires....

Years ago, few were affected because there was NO ONE living there!

Global Warming My ASS!!!!

BTW...I'm not reading any of your drivel on this!

[Yellowdogtexan]

Wabby. It is called science and the real world. Come out and join the real world. Science is nice and unless you want to remain ignorant, you should learn to understand it.

[Wabash]

Wabby. It is called science and the real world. Come out and join the real world. Science is nice and unless you want to remain ignorant, you should learn to understand it.

Science is Great....but it ain't GOD!


Here's one for you....

[SIZE="4"]THE BIG BURN: IDAHO AND MONTANA...1910.. 3 MILLION ACRES LOST! WHY? TOO MANY TREES AND UNDERGROWTH!


Hottest year on record...1936! The worse fire season in Ca. ON RECORD! 250 thousand square miles! Couldn't blame Geo. Bush back then, or SUVs, GW or any of that trash you libs spew!

NOTHING GOING ON LIKE IT IS TODAY! Fires are an on going thing!

[Wabash]

SCIENCE IS GREAT, BUT IT'S NOT THE BIBLE...ITS A LOT OF GUESSTIMATE! Just like I told TB yesterday!

You locking yourself totally into the "science" makes you a one dimensional, narrow minded, liberal dufus!

[Wabash]

Liberals have little or no curiosity about anything......

They play the blame game...ya gotta blame somebody...right?

Blame Mother Nature!....

These fires are NOT the fault of Bush, GW or the Iraq war....they occur often and will continue to do so, just like they have been doing for a century or more...

[Kurtz]

This is a weird thread. :para

[Wabash]

This is a weird thread. :para

Yep...it consists of those locked into a scientific blame game and those that look at history and KNOW there are many factors involved...most of which we can't do anything about!


The Blamers vs. The Intelligent!

Same O....Same O

[AYFR]

The fact that enviromental groups stop the thinning of the forest and the clearing of dry brush, twigs and others stuff is what made the fire so bad. It has nothing to do with global warming.
Califorina has fires all the time and will continue to have them.

If people were to do what was needed to keep the combustible materials down the fires wouldn't be so bad.

http://rpc.senate.gov/_files/ENVIROR...Sev0312030.pdf


Needed: A Common-Sense Approach
to Protecting Our Nation’s Forests
Executive Summary
• More than 190 million acres of federal forest land are in declining health due to
overgrowth, disease, insect infestation, and weather-related damage and, as a result,
also are susceptible to catastrophic wildfires. The Nation’s forests are among our most
treasured natural resources. The health of those forests is a safety issue for millions of
Americans who live in or near them, but more than that, it is essential to assuring a
diverse ecosystem of plants and animals that can survive for generations to come.1
• The tools are readily available to restore our forests to healthy conditions.
Improving forest health through thinning smaller trees, reduction of overgrowth, removal
of dead and dying trees, and prescribed burning to further reduce unwanted fuels can help
return our forests to “pre-settlement conditions.” This will assure that: a diverse
ecosystem of plants and animals will survive for generations to come; air and water
quality are improved; recreation opportunities and scenic beauty are preserved and
enhanced; and that the threat of catastrophic wildfires is reduced.2
• Obstacles – in the form of environmental extremists – are impeding timely
treatment of our forests. Administrative appeal of restoration projects and litigation to
prevent federal forest managers from conducting forest health projects have drastically
slowed the effort to restore forest health. Policymakers and lawmakers should
concentrate on removing administrative and legal impediments to forest health restoration effort.


Despite the widespread understanding that our forests are at risk, some environmental
groups literally have formed human roadblocks to stop efforts by federal land managers to restore
forest health. Appeals and lawsuits filed by environmental groups for projects throughout the
nation, large and small, now represent the greatest risk to federal forests.

Enhancing Plant, Fish and Animal Habitats and Increasing Diversity
Some observers, claiming to speak in the name of “environmental protection,” advocate
limiting the use of thinning to the so-called Wildland-Urban Interface, where developed
communities abut federal forest lands. Dr. Covington suggests that concentrating on those
regions alone – while useful in protecting homes, farms, ranches, and people – does little to
address the health threat to entire forest ecosystem, including the habitats of birds, fish, and other
animals. Left untreated, the vast interior of our valuable forests will not be a welcoming place
for some of nature’s diverse species:
“Another reason that attention cannot be narrowly focused on a ring around the city is
because it will fail to address one of the most contentious issues of our time, the
protection of endangered species. . . . By not restoring the forest, we contribute to the
decline of habitat and the collision between society and nature.” 8
On the other side of this coin is a critical benefit yielded by forest thinning: a dramatic
increase in species diversity. According to Secretary of the Interior Gail Norton, catastrophic
fires in overly dense forests pose a threat to many threatened and endangered species, and
removal of small trees and undergrowth will benefit ecosystem health: she notes that the U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service estimates that 46 species of forest birds, including 13 species of great
concern to wildlife biologists, will benefit from better management of the forests.9

[April15]

So Cal is anything but a dense forest. That the landscape burned so rampantly is just a symptom of the time of year possibly exacerbated by a warmer and dryer than usual year.
A few of the fires are suspected to be from wires falling from the extreme high winds.

[AYFR]

I was just pointing out that it is silly to blame this on GW

[Wabash]

Sure it is...but the Bush Haters here love to do it.......if Hillary gets elected, they will blame someone else...never her! Never Bill!

You are correct Rev...you have it right.

Let me emphasize........Enviromentalists are the Biggest bobble heads in the world and are partly to blame for this disaster! There ought to be a bounty on them! They would do more for the ecology as fertilizer!

[Wabash]

I like SF, since I was born and raised 20 miles away and lived on the Peninsula for 30 years...I'd still be there if it weren't for an X wife!

I visit a few times a year, enjoy the beautiful weather and many other things....I always pack my gun thou, have to be on guard for the aggressive cornholers!:)